Who can think of a scenario where Russia wins? You can't anymore. Crimea's going to be cut off. Putin's going to abdicate - but for dictators, I don't think that works. Some sort of wanna be politburo will try to take over, but some Russian Federation "republic," with memories of 1991, will announce they're leaving. The central authorities will be in a pickle (I still don't know where that phrase comes from) because either way they lose: The provincial utterly poverty ridden republics are where all the meat grinder deaths have come from. Who are they going to send to restore order? If they massacre the wives, mothers, and fathers of the poor guys sent to Donbas to die, well, that's not so good. If they let it happen, then who else announces they're leaving, too? The Caucasius, well, memories are long, hmmm? If an ethnically Russian republic says Adios, Moscow, oh boy....

It's not looking good for 'ol Vlad and his pals, and yes, Moscow and St.Petersburg remember Navalny and Nemtsov and all the others who got shot or poisoned or fell out of windows so a little coterie of mafia oligarchs could have their megayachts and fancy London addresses and, of course, Putin's Palace that, uh, doesn't really exist.

When the Kaiser started WW1 or Hitler sent the Stukas into Poland, they really did think they were smart fucks. Idiot dictators always do.