Hi Evan - Another wild card is the Bayraktar TB2 drones Ukraine has gotten from Turkey. Several years ago, Turkey halted a Syrian/Russian armored drive into NW Syria with drones, and in the more recent Armenian/Azerbijani conflict, the Azerbijanis decisively defeated the Armenians by using Turkish drones. These drones can loiter and then drop missiles or themselves onto tanks, howitzers, etc. Far-thinking military analysts are considering actually whether tanks may soon be obsolete.
The Russians, of course, have advanced air defense systems that the Syrians or Armenians didn't, but it is becoming a new world now, and if there is a conflict, which I don't believe there will be unless Putin is exceedingly stupid, and, who knows? He's 65 now, facing, even if it's a sham, a re-election in 2024, and may certainly be worried about up-and-comers eyeing his job...
Hopefully, he'll back down, but if he does decide on some utterly stupid invasion, it may not go the way everyone thinks.
Hey, thanks for your articles and research!